Photo credit: Fabrice Florin

There’s a pervasive idea in our society that protests are largely pointless. Standing around with a sign doesn’t accomplish anything, the thinking goes–it’s a useless way of venting anger, a naive attempt to participate in the democratic process, or a pointless gesture in a world where the rich and powerful control everything. These themes come up again and again in the popular discourse about protest, and are reinforced by media personalities, books, and movies.

The durability of the idea that protesting doesn’t work is a bit strange, considering the overwhelming evidence that protests do, in fact, have an impact, and are probably one of the single most effective ways to create change in society. This reality has been illustrated yet again by the Biden administration’s decision to postpone a decision on permitting the Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) LNG project.

If you’re not familiar with CP2, it’s one of about 17 proposed LNG export projects in the Gulf of Mexico region, which need to be approved by the federal government before they can be built. Together, these terminals would vastly increase the amount of gas exported overseas by the U.S. and our contribution to the climate crisis. Amid concern about global energy markets caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, the administration’s approval of CP2 once seemed all but guaranteed. However, climate and environmental justice groups fought back. Gulf communities have been organizing against LNG for a long time, and more recently LNG projects like CP2 become a major focus for national climate organizations. In one of the most dramatic signs of this, earlier this month a list of prominent activists including Bill McKibben, Sunrise Movement founder Varshini Prakash, and youth climate strike leader Alexandria Villasenor released a letter inviting activists from all over to come to Washington, DC and engage in three days of mass civil disobedience to protest CP2.

The tactic of holding a multiday civil disobedience in DC to protest a large fossil energy project isn’t new. It was deployed in 2011 by groups protesting the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline–and those protests marked a turning point in the larger fight against that disastrous project. Soon after the protests, the Obama administration postponed making a decision on whether to permit Keystone XL. A final decision kept getting pushed back, while climate groups continued to organize in opposition to the pipeline, including with mass protests that brought tens of thousands of people to DC. Obama’s State Department eventually rejected Keystone XL–a decision later upheld by the Biden administration.

The campaign against Keystone XL was remarkable in that it stopped a major oil pipeline whose eventual construction once seemed certain. Keystone XL is the first major energy project rejected by a presidential administration in part because of climate concerns. There can be no doubt that protests played a crucial role in the Keystone XL campaign, and that it would have failed without mass mobilizations and civil disobedience. Yet, again and again throughout the campaign, the protesters were derided, ridiculed, and accused of being ineffective–sometimes even by voices from within the environmental movement.

It remains to be seen if CP2 and other Gulf LNG projects will galvanize a resistance as diverse and nationwide as the movement that came together to defeat Keystone XL. But so far, the Biden administration’s response to the mere threat of mass protests looks very similar to Obama’s handling of Keystone XL. A few days ago, the administration announced it will delay a decision on CP2 and other LNG terminals so the climate implications of the projects can be considered. Is it a coincidence that this announcement came just weeks after the public call for mass civil disobedience? If so, it’s a very striking coincidence indeed.

Of course, the Biden administration may still approve CP2, and what eventually happens with the project will likely depend on how well climate groups demonstrate lasting public opposition. However, the fact that just the threat of high-profile civil disobedience seems to have prompted the administration to delay a decision illustrates again how effective protesting can be. Protests work because they call attention to an issue, put decision makers in the spotlight, and demonstrate that people care. Civil disobedience can be especially effective, because it shows people care enough about an issue that they would risk arrest and legal repercussions in order to make their point. You can’t send that same kind of powerful message by writing a letter or posting on Instagram (though those actions also have their place in activist campaigns).

As someone who has been involved in the climate movement for over 15 years, I can’t count the number of times I’ve witnessed people shaking their heads over the supposed inefficacy of this or that protest-focused campaign against destructive industries–only for the activists to end up being far more effective than almost anyone predicted. Clearly, the idea that protests don’t work didn’t come from the careful study real-world events, since such an analysis would show that they do, in fact, work. The effectiveness of large protests is so well supported that political scientist Erica Chenoweth found an astonishing 100% success rate for grassroots movements around the world who involved at least 3.5% of their country’s population in protesting over a sustained period.

So, where did the notion that protests don’t work come from? Probably a variety of sources. For one thing, anyone who benefits from the status quo has a strong incentive to use their platform to convince the public that protesting is pointless–and politicians, media personalities, and other “leaders” have worked hard to disseminate this message.

At the same time, when you are in the midst of protesting it can often be hard to feel like you’re having an impact. After all, not every protest is successful–and when success does come, it often takes years to materialize. In the meantime, activists may get discouraged as they start to feel they are showing up to march with signs again and again without seeing tangible progress.

Also at fault, I suspect, is the way that books, movies, and other media tend to portray protests even when the intentions are good. In hindsight, successful protests are often depicted as if they came out of nowhere and quickly won victories that seem almost inevitable after the fact. Sometimes, this is done with the intent of telling an inspiring story about how ordinary people can make a difference. However, it obscures the years of hard work that usually go into generating grassroots movements. In reality, all movements have moments of perceived failure, and times when the goal they are trying to accomplish feels utterly out of reach. We tend to forget this when celebrating past, successful movements–leading to a situation where activists who reach this natural phase in a campaign start to believe their efforts are useless.

The reality is that protests are–or can be–incredibly effective. Grassroots movements that rely heavily on mass protest are likely to accomplish at least some of their goals, while those that eschew protesting are unlikely to make major change. It’s also important to note that a protest need not necessarily involve thousands of people to be effective. A crucial part of the campaign to stop Keystone XL involved relatively small groups of people keeping the issue in front of the Obama administration by showing up with signs wherever the President made a public appearance. And at the local level, a strategically organized protest of a few hundred people, or sometimes even fewer, can have an effect similar to that of tens of thousands of people descending on Washington, DC as part of a national campaign.

My biggest takeaway from the Biden administration’s decision to delay a decision on CP2 and at least look at its climate impacts is that it shows, yet again, how effective protests (or even the threat of protests) can be. Keep that in mind next time someone tells you marching with a sign is pointless.